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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
In 2006/07, you will see a small dip in public DL enrollments and a small rise in registration numbers. This was likely due to Bill 33 and the fact that DLs could no longer write cheques directly to parents for reimbursement purposes, the exception being internet costs.
Some people, by looking at the column that compares the number of registered homeschoolers in the province to the overall number of students, may think that the decrease in registration matches the overall decrease in enrollment the province has been facing over the past 10 years: 0.6% in 2000/01 to 0.4% in 2009/10.
I'm not sure that those registration "percentages" tell the whole story. Some additional decimal points provide a clearer picture. For example, in 2009/10, it was really 0.379%, where as in 2006/07, it was 0.422%, even though both are reported as a rounded figure 0.4% of all students. For 2010/11, the figure is 0.343%.
It's also a matter of scale, which is clearly shown in the graphs. If the 2000/01 figures are included, it will be even more pronounced when the data comes out for 2010/2011 as the registration numbers are now just over 2200.
When I look at the overall numbers, yes, school enrollment for both public and independent has dropped (except for last year when it increased by 0.2%). In 2000/01, there were 692,148 students enrolled. In 2009/10, there were 640,952 enrolled: a net decrease of 42,196 or 6.1%.
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
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| click image to enlarge from the BC Ministry of Education's Summary of Key Information report |
When I look at the registration numbers in the same way, in 2000/01, there were 4134 registered children. In 2009/10, there were 2463: a net decrease of 1671 or 40%.
If you compare the rates of change (6.1% overall to 40% registered), you can see that the trend isn't quite as innocuous as 0.2% might seem on paper.
And, if you compare the rate of change to the highest level of registration ever, 1996/97, when there were 4925, to the numbers this year, 2228, then the net decrease over the past 15 years is 2697 or 55%.
This year's and last year's registration numbers are the lowest since the very first year registration became a legal option. The number of registered homeschoolers in 1989/90 (1695) was likely more a figure of compliance than a true indication of the number of homeschoolers in the province. I'm sure there were many people digging in their heels at the change as they understood that their children's education was already their responsibility under the previous School Act.
Back to numbers:
The rate of change for both last year and this year is - 9.5% for registration.
The rate of change, however, for 2009/10 for overall numbers was +0.2% and for this year it is -0.09%. I think that's significantly different than -9.5% in terms of overall change. Not that I plan to dust off my rusty statistics background to do proper calculations. I believe the numbers speak for themselves and demonstrate a trend that I suspect will continue on the same trajectory as registered learners "graduate" and fewer families with young children register.
Sources:
http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reporting/docs/ski.pdf
http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reports/pdfs/student_stats/prov.pdf
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UPDATE: Trends for 2011/12 from the BC Ministry of Education, plus numbers for Registered Homeschoolers for 2013/14.
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| click image to enlarge Number of Registered Homeschoolers in BC in 2012/14 |
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| click image to enlarge Number of Registered Homeschoolers in BC in 2011/12 Percent Change from 2010/11: -6.5% |
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| click image to enlarge Chart for number of Registered Homeschoolers up to and including 2011/12 |
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| click image to enlarge Includes Percent Change for 2011/12 |
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| click image to enlarge Graph showing growth of Distributed Learning Enrolment including 2010/11 |
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| click image to enlarge Graph showing growth of Distributed Learning Enrolment including 2011/12 |
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| click image to enlarge Comparison of DL enrolment numbers for public and independent schools (up to 2011/12) |
Sources:
http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reports/pdfs/student_stats/prov.pdf
http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reporting/docs/SoK_2011.pdf
http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/reporting/docs/SoK_2012.pdf
